The World Scenario Check is a meta-study based on all freely available scenario studies published since 1990. We analyse these studies according to your specific interests and questions, offering you the profit of the future intelligence of renowned international think tanks.
The World Scenario Check can be used to critically evaluate and adjust a company’s strategic decisions and corporate R&D-roadmaps. Furthermore, the tool can be used as a starting point for the development of product innovations. We deliver a sophisticated, tailor-made “Future Map” which provides global scenario knowledge at a glance.
The World Scenario Check consists of two complementary modules: We provide you with a systematic description – in the shape of scenario profiles – of a jointly defined portfolio of studies. The assumption about the future implicit in the studies, forecasts, and trend extrapolations are then summarized into relevant statements for your future work using in-depth analysis. The result could be called a "meta-scenario" which focuses the original studies’ future knowledge relevant to your interests in a handy format.
You receive scenario profiles tailor-made to your requirements. They summarise the crucial statements of selective studies in a highly useful, standardised format.
• Main Focus: We define the portfolio of scenario studies, which is to be the focus of your individual World Scenario Check, in collaboration with you. The starting point for the selection is your main focus: Is your industry your key interest? Are you interested in the development of the global general framework? Or would you prefer studying one particular, topical subject, for instance the future of media usage or the development of manufacturing technologies?
• Filtering Criteria: In addition, our scenario database can be filtered according to specific criteria: Are you only interested in explorative scenarios, which look at the envelope of the possible, or is there also room to include normative scenarios, which focus on what is desirable? What is the relevant time horizon? Which regional focus should the survey have?
• Description Grid: We customize our description grid to your requirements. Among the core elements are an assessment of methodical soundness, a concise summary of main statements, and an assessment of the degree of relevance for your industry.
Based on the scenario profiles, we conduct in-depth analyses which aggregate the knowledge contained in the studies with a view to more general questions. Here, we have two complementary approaches:
• Common Sense: The "Common Sense" displays the studies’ dominating expectations for the future and the development of (mega-)trends. Most think tanks, to quote but one example, assume that during the next decade both social injustice and individualisation will increase. The synopsis gives a clear picture of what experts consider a likely qualitative envelope of future developments. We use a highly sophisticated, graphical “Future Map” to show this framework, thus presenting the bottom line of key development directions and providing a point of reference.
• Minority Report: The “Minority Report” identifies dissenting opinions, trend reversal events, and discontinuities within the selected portfolio of scenario studies. Will there be yet a resurgence of the welfare state? Will new forms of global governance emerge as a reaction to increasing global risks? Whereas the Common-Sense analysis provides a “standard future” which may be less surprising, the Minority Report is about the (freedom of) scope of things to come. It can be used for tests of robustness, to challenge one’s own assumptions about the future.
Feel free to contact us if you are interested in using the World Scenario Check in your company. Please get in contact with Kai Jannek, Senior Foresight Consultant (Phone +49.221.355 534.10).
