What next for peace operations?

ZIF study provides an insight

"Peace Operations 2025" is the result of a collaboration between ZIF (Centre for International Peace Operations) and Z_punkt.

An international and interdisciplinary group of practitioners and scientists met up over a period of one-and-a-half years for a scenario process on the future of international peace operations. In the course of three workshops, in Berlin, Addis Ababa and New York, four plausible and consistent scenarios were developed.

Will there still be any peace operations at all in 10 or 15 years' time? And who will fund them? Who will send troops? Will the world be even more conflict-ridden than it already is? And what role will UNO and the UN Security Council be playing then? The high-calibre experts were unable to provide assured forecasts on these issues, but during the process, chaired and supported by Z_punkt, they were able to come up with theoretical possibilities, as in the said scenarios. 

In total, twelve variable factors as well as the two megatrends "Increase in world population" and "Climate change" were identified, which will crucially influence changes in future peace operations. In this connection, workshop participants especially focused on the interactions between the key factors.

Hence, for example, the very different local effects of megatrends in less developed countries have to be taken into consideration, such as the effects of rapid population growth on a country's economy and ecology and the options for dealing with extreme weather conditions and water shortages.

Differing projections were used as a basis for the variable drivers, i.e. the future scenarios assume, for example, a favourable development of the global economy on the one hand and also the opposite.

How do countries react when they are trying to juggle national interests and global dependencies? Are existing multilateral relationships strengthened or do new regional structures develop?

What effect will the shift in the balance of global economic and political power have? Will new powers such as China, India and Brazil assimilate themselves into the existing structures of international crisis management? If so, what might the new structures be like?

What role will the change of values in societies play in relation to the acceptance of international peace operations? And what effects will fragile state structures, potential conflicts over resources and the increase in organised crime, migration and refugee flows have? What political pressure can new media be expected to exert and what potential do new technologies have – are they a blessing or a threat?

What role will private sector-oriented security firms adopt in the interaction of international crisis management?

The many possible combinations for these projections were condensed into meaningful scenarios. Their formulation is consciously exaggerated in some cases, as the future scenarios are not predictions, but are intended to stimulate creative reflection on the future of international peace operations.

Z_punkt Senior Foresight Consultant and Project Manager Björn Theis emphasises that "the special challenges in this project were the multi-faceted interactions between social, technological, political, economic and ecological factors as well as regional aspects that influence the future of international peace operations. It is especially with complex issues such as these that future research demonstrates what it can accomplish: with the aid of its methods, coupled with the interdisciplinary expertise of the international workshop participants, complex interrelationships can become apparent and be systemised, in order to facilitate strategic reflection on the future."

Four scenarios for peace operations*

"Erratic Progress"

In this scenario the existing multilateralism continues to operate with scant resources and unclear strategies. The goals are not very realistic in some cases. The new powers are still looking for a place in the international system, but have not yet found a way of translating their economic strength into influence and responsibility in multilateral organisations. The UN continues to be the main player in international peace operations. However, after a series of costly failures, the willingness of the international community to participate in the stabilisation of post-conflict societies has noticeably diminished. Unequally distributed economic growth has further aggravated global wealth inequalities.  Along with other factors, poverty is still fuelling numerous conflicts. The capacities of the international community are still not sufficient to meet this challenge.

"National Interests"

The world is sinking into the worst economic crisis since the 1930s; uncertainty and fear are leading to isolationism and protectionism. International peace operations are a thing of the past, although they are urgently needed given the violent conflicts in the growing number of failed states. The bitter competition for commodities and the rampant organised crime are also contributing to destabilisation. Most states are however concentrating solely on their economic survival and strengthening internal security. The breakdown of international standards has destroyed the legitimacy of multilateral structures. Like regional organisations, the UN has been condemned to inaction. The few crisis interventions still taking place are the result of coalitions formed at short notice between willing parties motivated by national self-interest and led by private security firms.

"Regional Diversity"

Peace operations are carried out by regional organisations. Cross-border risks such as climate change, state disintegration, a shortage of resources and organised crime demand international solutions, but following the crisis in the West and the ascendency of new protagonists in Asia and South America the existing multilateral structures can no longer offer credible solutions. The new major and medium-sized powers have responded by going their own way. A network of regional organisations has largely ousted the UN from its central position in terms of the legitimation and implementation of peace operations. These regional organisations and their leading powers fluctuate between cooperation, competition and mere coexistence. This unpredictability is hampering the long-term success of peace operations.

"Global Cooperation"

A golden era of global cooperation is the product of a worldwide economic recovery, driven by revolutionary developments in the field of energy supply. All players are benefiting from these trends and their successful integration is strengthening the multilateral organisations. They have sufficient resources and the political backing of their member states as well as broad social acceptance. The clearly structured, work-sharing cooperation between international and regional players is increasing the effectiveness of global crisis management. Therefore, whilst growing global affluence is reducing the number of conflicts and consequently the demand for peace operations is falling, the international capacities for sustainable stabilisation of the few remaining crisis regions are better developed than ever. 

*Source: ZIF Scenarios for Peace Operations 2025, October 2012

Illustrations: Sebastian Haslauer/Nina Juric

"At present over 70 peace operations are in progress worldwide and they are an essential tool of the international community for dealing with conflicts and fragile states. In this respect, it is imperative to reflect on future strategies for peace operations. The study can provide impetus for this with its scenarios. With the workshop participants - experienced practitioners from peace operations, decision-makers and high-calibre political visionaries - important multipliers for the discussion and opinion-forming process have already been acquired. Now it is time to disseminate the results of the study. Ideally they will help to ensure that we end up with the global cooperation scenario in 2025", sums up Z_punkt Scientific Director Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller, who has accompanied the scenario process and is delighted about the very creative and very productive cooperation with ZIF.

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Ansprechpartner: Björn Theis