Dear Readers,
When a company decides today to deal with what the world will be like in 2050, it seems more than prudent to ask: what is the benefit of doing so?
Frank Appel, CEO of Deutsche Post AG,hit the nail on the head when he presented the findings of the scenario study Logistics 2050, which was carried out jointly with Z_punkt. He said: “Over recent decades, the pace of change in society and the economy has accelerated rapidly. Our environment has become much more complex, making it difficult to forecast what will happen with any degree of precision. Our lives are now characterised by higher levels of uncertainty; we must accept that fact. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to be prepared for the unforeseeable—not just in our sector but also in every other industry. An in-depth analysis of the key questions about the future is, therefore, indispensable—both for companies and individuals alike.”
There’s not much more that can be said, save that we hope you enjoy reading the scenarios for the future of logistics in 2050 (we are just a little bit proud of them!) and our feature-packed Spring Newsletter!
With best wishes,
The Z_punkt Management Team
Klaus Burmeister, Cornelia Daheim, Andreas Neef, Holger Glockner
Delivering Tomorrow with Z_punkt
Deutsche Post DHL publishes its Logistics in 2050 scenario study
Z_punkt has helped Deutsche Post DHL to develop five scenarios for the global economy and logistics sector in 2050.
The scenario study, which was published as part of the Delivering Tomorrow series, depicts a sophisticated picture of plausible development paths, and deals systematically with long-term strategic options for society and the economy.
more information
Z_punkt Future Lounge
New event format launched
Future Lounge from Z_punkt is a free space for thinking, dialogue and bridge-building. Every so often, we get together at different locations to discuss relevant economic and social issues in a relaxed atmosphere.
On 15th February, Future Lounge #1 played host to around fifty strategists from the world of business, academia, politics and culture, inviting them to think about the future together; the event was held at the Kölner Rotonda Business Club.
The recent study by Z_punkt Germany 2030 – Future Perspectives for Value Creation which was conducted on behalf of the Federation of German Industry, provided an excellent starting point for lively debate amongst lounge guests about potential disruptions and paradigm shifts.
more
Get better faster!
Emerging issues management as an early-warning system
Anyone looking to secure a competitive advantage in the face of mounting competitive pressure, turbulent market and environmental developments, and increasingly complex stakeholder relationships, needs to identify the forerunners of a new world—away from those megatrends that have now become part of the mainstream.
Emerging issues are strategic future issues in the early stages of their development. Recognising them in advance means a company can adopt suitable strategies and concepts to deal with relevant issues in the future.
How? Holger Glockner outlines the methodology and opportunities in the current edition of Zukunftsmanager, a magazine published by the FAZ Institut.
Download the article
Subscribe for free at:
www.zukunftsmanager-magazin.de
En route to sustainable mobility
Sustainable concepts of mobility will become a key factor for success, and not just in terms of regional competitiveness. Klaus Burmeister, Andreas Neef, Holger Glockner and Bert Beyers wrote a piece for Mobility, the latest special issue of the German edition of Technology Review, arguing that sustainable mobility systems require new forms of political, social and economic cooperation in order to function properly.
Download the article
order the magazine
Sustainable Markets of the Future 2020
Z_punkt survey update now completed
Over the past two years, we have seen—and continue to witness—profound upheaval (from Fukushima to the financial crisis). Against this backdrop, we have now updated our survey on the markets of the future in 2020.
We asked what has changed for future markets as a result of recent volatility, and which markets of the future show the greatest potential? What contribution will they make to solving global issues? Which regions and sectors will benefit in particular?
122 experts passed judgement, and the first results are: The Top-3 sustainable markets of the future will be ‘high-performance energy storage devices’, ‘intelligent materials and lightweight construction’ and ‘infrastructure geared towards the needs of older citizens’. Currently, the data is still being evaluated, and the other findings will be published shortly.
We would like to thank everyone who took part!
Hay Group Leadership 2030
How can managers become apt for the future?
Managers will need to undergo significant retraining in order to remain successful. Skills that once enhanced a person’s career will no longer be required in the future—in fact, quite the opposite will be true.
The study entitled Building the New Leader: Leadership Challenges of the Future Revealed outlines six megatrends derived from analysis carried out by Z_punkt; it is clear that new skills and competencies will be needed.
You can find out more about the cognitive, emotional and behavioural challenges that business leaders will have to face over the next two decades here.
Download the study.
Safety first!
Z_punkt turns its attentions to safety
At the inaugural Innovation Forum being run by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research on the topic of civil security, Karlheinz Steinmüller will present four scenarios for the future of IT security, urban security, airport security and crisis communication. He is also inviting people to take part in the Security 2025 workshop organised by the Public Security Research Forum to discuss key issues relating to security research.
The Innovation Forum on civil security is taking place from 17th to 19th April 2012 at the Café MOSKAU conference centre in Berlin.
Karlheinz Steinmüller already represented Z_punkt at the Berlin Research Congress organised by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs on the topic of how to deal with systematic, international risks, which was held on 5th March 2012.
It’s safe to say, we’re sticking with this issue!
Global Risk Report 2012
In the 7th Edition of its Global Risk Report, the World Economic Forum has warned that economic and social inequalities may reverse the achievements of globalisation. A survey of experts and industry leaders has now put the topic firmly back on the agenda, whereas the previous year focused primarily on environmental risks. Respondents to the survey feared that global players may not be sufficiently prepared for the current, correlated and rapidly-emerging risks.
Download: Global Risks Report 2012
Fewer resources needed for greater efficiency
The latest study by the Association of German Engineers (VDI) entitled Greater Prosperity: Fewer Resources investigates the tools available to increase resource efficiency within the economy and society as a whole in order to meet our needs in the areas of mobility, food, ICT, and construction and living. According to the German Federal Office of Statistics, these four fields account for more than 75% of private consumption in Germany, and thus represent the highest proportion of resource consumption. Amongst other things, the authors have discovered something surprising and, at first, seemingly paradoxical: the largest lever for greater resource efficiency is to be found at the end of the value chain.
Download the study
Strategic foresight certificate
Together with our Belgian colleagues from the Institute Destrée, the University of Houston, Texas, is now offering a five-day workshop on strategic foresight. Participants will learn how to anticipate disruptions and develop strategies for dealing with them within their company or organisation.
The workshop will run from 28th May to 1st June 2012.
more
The world in 100 years’ time
In 1901, John Elfreth Watkins Jr published a paper in Ladies’ Home Journal outlining his views about what may happen by the year 2001. “These prophecies may seem strange,” he wrote, “perhaps even impossible. However, they are from some of the most learned and conservative minds in America. I have turned to the wisest and most prudent men from our country’s largest academic and educational institutions,” Watkins stressed. His visions of what the future might be like are often not too far from reality!
BBC Magazine was inspired by the article, so much so that it has asked its readers for their thoughts about the future. It has found some equally weird and improbable things. The future theorists Ian Pearson and Patrick Tucker have also commented on the predictions.
Fact & Fiction: The future always wins
The movers-and-shakers at the New Scientist are now going a stage further. Arc 1.1 is a new digital magazine that seeks to spice up ‘sterile visions’ of the future with more “passion and pizazz”. Whereas the New Scientist tends to stick more to facts, Arc 1.1 offers an entirely new forum for fiction and sci-fi authors.
The first edition has pieces by well-known authors, including Margaret Atwood, Stephen Baxter, M. John Harrison, China Miéville, Hannu Rajaniemi, Alistair Reynolds, Adam Roberts and Bruce Sterling. There are also columns written by practitioners and thinkers from the world of literature, film, acting and design.
Arc 1.1 is available as a limited print-run, or for iPad and Kindle.
D.R.A.: „Future Of The Smallest Form“ (2001)
The man is only shaking so much because he is so full of joy and ideas; Christopher Dell is an exuberant, extraordinary, locomotory vibraphonist. He finds it difficult to remain stoically calm for long, unlike other colleagues, and is quickly back behind his instrument, jiggling. D.R.A. is taken from the names of the three musicians: Christopher Dell, Christian Ramond (bass) and Felix Astor (percussion), and also stands for ‘dynamic related action’. And, the actions really do have a lot to do with dynamics; the music pulses without interruption. The compositions are like small architectural shapes, which, in Dell’s view, “are entwined tightly around compressed information nuclei”. Even the title of the CD indicates this: Future of the Smallest Form. The danger of losing the musical breath amidst the cacophonous flood of information is never far away. Nevertheless, at its best, such exciting and action-packed music also becomes a sensory experience thanks to the constant interplay between tension and release, and the physical change of tempo.
Recommended listening for keen-eared people that enjoy lively performances:
- Listen and watch here: http://www.youtube.com/watch
- Solo by Christopher Dell: http://www.youtube.com/watch
